By Mike DeFabo, Jeff Zrebiec, Paul Dehner Jr. and Zac Jackson
Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North writers gather for a roundtable discussion. As the road gets narrower, it's time to decide where these teams are headed. Get ready for a pivotal Week 16.
On Nov. 17, the Steelers turned in a vintage defensive performance to beat the Ravens in a game in which Pittsburgh's offense failed to score a touchdown. But as we know, a lot can change in five weeks. In what ways has the team you cover evolved most over the last month-plus?
Mike DeFabo (Steelers): Going into that game against the Ravens, the Steelers' offense was humming. At the time, Russell Wilson had sparked the offense to back-to-back 400-plus-yard games against the New York Jets and New York Giants. Then in Week 10, deadline day addition Mike Williams made a game-winning touchdown catch in Washington. A team that for years won in spite of offense was looking like it finally had the necessary playmakers on the other side of the ball, especially with a new weapon at Wilson's disposal.
However, beginning with that Nov. 17 game against the Ravens when the Steelers failed to reach the end zone, the offense has been rather boom or bust. Yes, Wilson had one of the best games of his career during this stretch, racking up 414 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Bengals in Week 13. But that was largely an outlier, as the Steelers' offense was rather inconsistent in the other games. The Browns kept the Steelers out of the end zone for three quarters in Week 12, as Pittsburgh's red zone woes were exposed. Last week in Philadelphia, the Steelers' offense flunked its biggest test to date, producing just 163 yards in a low-possession game. Especially with George Pickens sidelined with a hamstring injury, the offense hasn't built upon the initial momentum or made Williams a meaningful contributor. It makes you wonder how much better positioned they are to win a shootout in the playoffs.
Jeff Zrebiec (Ravens): The Ravens have improved defensively, although they were playing so poorly that progress was inevitable. Over the past four games, Baltimore has allowed the fewest net yards per game, the second-fewest net passing yards and had the stingiest third-down defense. I don't know if I'd use the word "evolved" to describe how they've gone about it. They've simplified things. Moving Kyle Hamilton into a true safety role and benching Marcus Williams in favor of Ar'Darius Washington has resulted in better communication and fewer big plays allowed. Getting first-round corner Nate Wiggins and veteran Tre'Davious White more snaps has helped, too. The Ravens also benched young inside linebacker Trenton Simpson and rotated two or three veterans next to Roquan Smith. That's closed some of the space in the middle of the field. Skepticism on how they'll be able to match up defensively against some of the AFC's heavyweights is still warranted, but the group is making strides. Now, if it would just cut down on the penalties.
Paul Dehner Jr. (Bengals): The rise of Chase Brown stands out here. Now, this came by virtue of injury to Zack Moss, but once the Bengals fully unleashed Brown as a feature back on Nov. 3 against Las Vegas, the offense hit a new gear. He's proven explosive catching the ball out of the backfield, reliable in protection and impossible to wear down as he's taken nearly every offensive touch by a running back. His chemistry off-script with Joe Burrow popped off highlights and continually kept drives alive. Over the last six weeks, the Bengals have scored at least 27 points in each game and Brown ranks third in the league in yards from scrimmage (730).
Zac Jackson (Browns): Jameis Winston went from local hero after beating the Steelers to interception machine who was benched last week and now has been benched for good, presumably. Now, the Browns turn back to second-year quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson in what's a logical but low-ceiling evaluation experiment. Not a lot has changed for the Browns since the first quarterback change in late October. They've long been eliminated from playoff contention, so going to Thompson-Robinson in hopes he can show some progress and playmaking over the season's final three weeks just makes sense. The Browns face major big-picture decisions in the coming weeks, and that's been obvious for more than a month.
According to The Athletic's latest model, the Steelers have a 64 percent chance to win the division and a 4 percent chance to win the Super Bowl. The Ravens have a 36 percent chance to claim the AFC North and a 6 percent chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The Bengals have a 6 percent shot of making the playoffs and less than 1 percent odds to win it all. Pick one number that you think is most accurate -- or on the flip side, which stat do the nerds have wrong?
DeFabo: The Steelers' numbers accurately reflect where this team sits in the AFC hierarchy. They've already qualified for the playoffs and still have the inside track to win the division. But are they good enough to win it all? Well, 4 percent sounds about right. Unless the Steelers get a horrible road matchup on Super Wild Card Weekend, I'd still pick Pittsburgh to win its first playoff game since the 2016 season. But I'd be pretty surprised if they're throwing a parade in Pittsburgh in February. I think the nerds are right to say the Ravens have the higher ceiling. I actually might put Baltimore's chances higher than just 6 percent.
Zrebiec: Pittsburgh having a 64 percent chance to win the division seems pretty accurate to me. While there has been plenty of commentary about how Saturday's game is for the division, the result only decides the AFC North if the Steelers win. Otherwise, even if the Ravens beat Pittsburgh and then go on to win their final two against Houston and Cleveland, they'd still finish in second place in the division if the Steelers go on to defeat Kansas City and Cincinnati in their final two. In that case, the division would be decided by the third tiebreak criteria, which is record in common games. So the Steelers are very much in the driver's seat. Their margin for error will be slimmer if they lose in Baltimore, but they'd still have the advantage.
Dehner: The fact the Ravens still have the best chance of the group to win the Super Bowl is correct. January football is defined by quarterback play. I know, I know, everyone will point to the history with Lamar Jackson in the playoffs, but I'm not buying that continues. He's playing at such a high level. I'll take Jackson with a suspect defense over everything else being offered by a team in this division when it comes to beating Buffalo and/or Kansas City.
Jackson: If the Ravens' defense continues to improve, they have a chance to hoist the trophy. I think those numbers match up. The Steelers just don't have enough offense -- and they have even less with Pickens sidelined. I think for outside observers, this is a great year. Maybe eight or nine teams can legitimately win the Super Bowl, and the Ravens absolutely should feel like they're one of those teams. I can picture a first-round playoff game in which the Bills beat the Bengals something like 84-77, but I don't actually think we'll see that happen.
What was your biggest takeaway from Episode 3 of "Hard Knocks"?
DeFabo: I'm not sure why so much of this episode focused on players preparing their bodies. Yeah, if they were just following one team, it would make sense for a bye week episode to center around recovery. But we're in the middle of a division race. There are so many more compelling parts of a football team than massages and cryotherapy. Maybe the coolest part was when Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts told Wilson, "I watched you my whole childhood. You paved the way." The show needs more moments like this that fans can't see on Instagram or when they're watching the game on TV.
Zrebiec: There just hasn't been a whole lot of interesting footage or memorable exchanges, and that continued with Episode 3. It's cool to get a glimpse of how accomplished veterans like Wilson, Ja'Marr Chase, Denzel Ward and Smith have to prepare their bodies for the grind of the season. But it feels like I'm grasping at straws here to find moments that I'd describe as memorable or even entertaining. I don't want to put it all on the "Hard Knocks" folks. My guess is all four teams have been pretty stingy about what they're OK'ing to be shown on television.
Where are the entertaining coach-player exchanges in meeting rooms or on the practice field? Where is the coverage of some of the events/issues these teams are battling? For example, from a Ravens' perspective, I'm not sure suspended wide receiver Diontae Johnson's name has even been mentioned -- and there's been next to nothing on Justin Tucker's struggles. It just hasn't been very compelling overall.
Dehner: The takeaway might be more about what was not in there than what was in the episode. There was nothing about Burrow's house getting burglarized or any of the struggles he was enduring behind the scenes. There wasn't even a clip of him addressing it in his news conference. Also, nothing from the sideline of his interaction with coach Zac Taylor that was caught on the national broadcast. Taylor even mentioned Wednesday that his interaction with Jordan Battle following the goal-line fumble was cut from the show. Important to remember that the final veto power of the teams is in full force on these shows.
Jackson: We're not getting unfiltered access. Not even close. What's happening with Johnson and the Ravens? Where's a look at the benching of Winston and how the Browns discussed the inevitable change to Thompson-Robinson? How about a look at how Jerry Jeudy has gone from non-factor to 1,000-yard receiver? The one real story in Cleveland is the titanic failure of Watson and how it's sinking -- and will continue to sink -- the entire organization. I know that's not as entertaining as the Mike Tomlin-isms, but this is far from a truly inside series in my opinion.
It's time for the most important prediction of the season. Will the Steelers' defense prove once again it really is Jackson's kryptonite to clinch the AFC North, or will the Ravens QB beat Pittsburgh for the first time since 2019? Will Burrow's Bengals keep the slimmest of playoff chances alive, or can the Browns play spoiler?
DeFabo: Last time around, I predicted the Steelers would win at home and lose in Baltimore. I feel more confident in that pick now, especially given the Steelers' significant injuries. Pickens was ruled out, and maybe just as importantly, strong safety DeShon Elliott is doubtful with a hamstring injury of his own. Pickens was targeted a season-high 12 times and made a season-best eight catches in the last meeting against the Ravens, yet Pittsburgh still couldn't score a touchdown. Against a Baltimore defense that has improved, it could be tough sledding on Saturday. I like Jackson to get the monkey off his back. In the other game, I'm picking the Bengals to have a comfortable lead that nearly evaporates, but they'll hang on for the win.
Zrebiec: I vowed in the Acrisure press box after the Steelers' Week 11 win over Baltimore that I was done picking the Ravens in this matchup until they actually, you know, beat the Steelers and play a good game while doing it. But here I am again thinking that the Ravens are due to finally beat them. The Steelers are coming off an extremely physical game against the Eagles, where the defense was on the field a lot. Star pass rusher T.J. Watt got banged up but is expected to play on Saturday. The Ravens are at home and at least should be the more desperate team. I'll say 20-17 Ravens, while fully preparing myself for the possibility of Saturday evening second-guessing. And I'll take the Bengals relatively comfortably over the Browns. I could see the Bengals staying alive in the playoff mix until Week 18.
Dehner: I like where the Ravens and Jackson are coming out of the bye. Hard to imagine this rigorous run for the Steelers isn't starting to wear on them at least a little bit. Give me the Ravens to re-open the AFC North title race in full force. Burrow and the Bengals shouldn't have much trouble with the Browns considering the way the offense is humming and the expectations playing against Thompson-Robinson. I'll take Cincinnati by 10.
Jackson: I can't pick the Steelers to win. I know how these games go, and I know the Steelers can win. But with the injuries and the Ravens being in a revenge spot, I just think Jackson finally has a good game versus Pittsburgh -- at least good enough to win, something like 24-18. The Bengals should score at least 30 points, and honestly getting to 24 is probably enough. The Browns have a history of being hard on Burrow, but it's impossible to imagine Cleveland having enough offense. Give me the home team, 34-20.