In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that, in 2025, the U.S. will see "the least crude oil net imports in a year since 1971".
The EIA noted in its December STEO that a combination of increasing domestic crude oil production and decreasing U.S. refinery runs means reduced net imports of crude oil next year.
"We forecast that net imports of crude oil into the United States will fall to 1.9 million barrels per day in 2025, down from 2.5 million barrels per day this year, and the least crude oil net imports in a year since 1971," the EIA said in its December STEO.
"Total U.S. crude oil production in our forecast increases by 0.3 million barrels per day in 2025. At the same time, we expect U.S. refineries will process 0.2 million barrels per day less crude oil next year, down to 16.0 million barrels per day," it added.
The EIA's December STEO sees crude oil net imports at 1.89 million barrels per day next year and 2.46 million barrels per day this year. Crude oil net imports came in at 2.41 million barrels per day in 2023, the STEO highlighted.
The organization's latest STEO projected that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.52 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.24 million barrels per day in 2024. It averaged 12.93 million barrels per day last year, the STEO showed.
In its latest STEO, the EIA said net imports of crude oil this year have remained close to 2023 volumes because increasing U.S. crude oil production has met an almost equivalent increase in U.S. refinery runs.
"We do not forecast gross imports or gross exports, but we can look at historical data to better understand the forecast for net imports," the EIA noted its STEO.
"U.S. imports of crude oil from Canada have remained strong this year. Our forecasts from earlier in 2024 had assumed exports from Canada's Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, which was completed in mid-2024, would mostly be sent to China," it added.
"However, because of slowing oil demand growth in China, most of the crude oil from the Trans Mountain pipeline has gone to refineries on the U.S. West Coast. Data from July 2024 showed the most U.S. imports of crude oil since June 2019, at more than 7.1 million barrels per day, and imports this year have been similar to 2023," it continued.
"At the same time, U.S. exports of crude oil through 3Q24 have been similar, on average, to exports during the same period in 2023. These factors contributed to net imports in 2024 remaining about the same as 2023," it went on to state.
The EIA noted in its December STEO that, "despite these recent trends", it forecasts net imports "will decrease next year because of the increase in crude oil production will likely lead to rising crude oil exports".
"A decrease in refinery runs because of a reduction in U.S. refinery capacity will also contribute to lower crude oil net imports in 2025," it added.
The EIA highlighted in the STEO that the U.S. is a net importer of crude oil and a net exporter of petroleum products.
In an explainer page hosted on its website, which was last updated in January this year, the EIA states that, in 2020, the United States became a net exporter of petroleum for the first time since at least 1949.
"Petroleum is a broadly defined class of liquid hydrocarbon mixtures that include crude oil, lease condensate, unfinished oils, and products produced from refining crude oil and from processing natural gas plant liquids, including hydrocarbon gas liquids," the EIA notes in the explainer.
"Volumes of finished petroleum products include non-hydrocarbon compounds, such as fuel ethanol, biodiesel, additives, and detergents, that are blended into the products," it adds.