Saturday's UFC Tampa card features a main event between top-10 UFC welterweights Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley. Covington is a former UFC interim champion and a three-time challenger for the promotion's 170-pound undisputed title. Buckley, who dropped to welterweight in 2023 and is 5-0 since that move. In the UFC Tampa co-main event, UFC veteran Cub Swanson faces Billy Quarantillo in a featherweight scrap. We look at the UFC Tampa card betting odds and line movement while giving picks and predictions for the main card.
UFC Tampa is the final fight card on the UFC's schedule in 2024. The promotion's schedule for 2025 begins on January 11 with UFC Vegas 101 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Colby Covington (17-4) enters the UFC Tampa fight card as the No. 6 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings. The 36-year-old claimed the interim UFC welterweight crown in June 2018 with a decision win over Rafael dos Anjos. However, Covington never fought in a title unification bout, as the UFC stripped Covington of the titlebecause he was unable to face then-champ Tyron Woodley because Covington could not compete following nasal surgery.
Covington did get a title shot in December 2019, but he lost that fight to Kamaru Usman via TKO. Covington bounced back from that loss with a TKO win over Tyron Woodley. In his next outing, Covington once again failed to take the title from Usman, losing via decision in 2021.
In his only fight of 2022, Covington scored a decision over Jorge Masvidal. He then got a third shot at UFC gold, but Edwards defeated him via decision in that December 2023 scrap. Covington has not competed since that loss.
Joaquin Buckley (20-6) is the No. 9 fighter in the UFC's 170-pound weight class. The 30-year-old Buckley is one quite a run since dropping, and staying at welterweight in 2023.
Buckley is 6-0 during his current welterweight run with three knockouts and three decision wins. He has already fought three times in 2024, picking up a knockout win over Vicente Luque, a decision victory over Nursulton Ruziboev, and most recently a knockout over two-time UFC title challenger Stephen Thompson. Buckley's win over Thompson came in October.
When the betting odds were first announced for this fight, Buckley opened as a -175 betting favorite over Covington, who was a +150 betting underdog. As fight night nears, Buckley is -235, while Covington comes in at +200.
The betting pick is Buckley to win via knockout.
The opening betting odds for the UFC Tampa co-main event saw Swanson as the +135 underdog to Quarantillo's -155. Today, Swanson is a +126 dog and Quarantillo a -146 favorite.
Swanson has alternated wins and losses over his past six fights, and is coming off a June split-decision loss to Andre Fili. Quarantillo is in the same boat as Swanson, going back-and-forth with wins and losses over his last eight walks to the Octagon. He is coming off a March submission setback to Youssef Zalal.
The betting pick is for Quarantillo to win via decision.
The opening odds for the flyweight fight between Manel Kape and Bruno Silva saw Kape open at -275 and Silva at +235. There has been major movement on the betting line in this contest. Kape is now a -400 favorite over Silva, who is a +330 underdog.
The betting pick is for Kape to win via decision.
The fight between Vitor Petrino and Dustin Jacoby will be conducted at light heavyweight. Petrino opened as a -275 favorite over Jacoby, who was +235. Today, Petrino is -330, while Jacoby is +270.
Petrino is the pick to win via knockout, but there is some value in Jacoby scoring an upset victory.
Next up is a bantamweight bout between Adrian Yanez and Daniel Marcos. Yanez opened at -170, while Marcos was +145. The betting line has shifted on this one. Today, Yanez is +195 and Marcos is -230.
The betting pick is for Yanez to pick up a knockout win.
Opening the UFC Tampa card is a light heavyweight matchup between Navajo Stirling and Tuco Tokkos. Stirling opened as a -500 favorite and is now listed at -900. As for Tokkos, he opened at +385 and is now +600.
The betting pick is Stirling to win via knockout, but there is a lot of value in picking Tokkos to score an upset.
Colby Covington to land over 75.5 significant strikes: +100
Cub Swanson vs. Bill Quarantillo to go the distance: -115
All odds for the tomorrow's UFC Tampa fight card previews, picks and predictions supplied by BetOnline.