Nearly 40 percent of the way through the 2024-25 campaign, there's been a quick and quiet, drama-free extension for defenseman Jake McCabe and not a lot else.
Yes, key forwards John Tavares, Matthew Knies and Mitch Marner all need contracts between now and July 1, but there hasn't been lot of negotiating in the media so far. Credit to Leafs management and the players' camps for that because it hasn't always been that way here. Not by a long shot.
For the most part, the focus has been on the Leafs' play on the ice. Thirty-one games into the season, they sit eighth in the NHL, on pace for just shy of 106 points, a jump of four from a year ago.
They have had one of the best goalie tandems in the league to this point and sit tied for fifth in goals against. Plus, they're almost fully healthy up front for the first time, which is going to help in the goals-for department where they're a disappointing 20th.
Interestingly, the team's four most important 2025 free agents are all having terrific starts to the season.
McCabe is half of one of the best defense pairings in the league with Chris Tanev and was the team's ice time leader on the back end before a recent injury.
Tavares, meanwhile, looks like he's found the fountain of youth as he's piled up 15 goals in 30 games and is on pace for 76 points after posting only 65 a year ago. Knies is amid a sophomore breakout, tied for third in goals among players 22 and under and on a 30-goal pace, double his output of last season.
And Marner has a case for Team MVP (alongside netminder Anthony Stolarz) given he is tied for ninth in NHL scoring with 41 points in 31 games, a 108-point pace that would shatter his previous career high (99 in 2022-23).
Marner's situation is understandably the noisiest of the bunch in the market, given the history here and how he has helped carry the Leafs when they had a handful of forwards out, including captain Auston Matthews.
This exchange between Nick Kypreos and Justin Bourne, for example, blew up last month as they went head-to-head on the fact Toronto hadn't yet signed the 27-year-old to a new deal.
There's some déjà vu here, with another Leafs player putting together a career year and building a case for a big raise. Heck, William Nylander did it just last season. Two years earlier, Matthews won a Hart Trophy a season before his negotiation, which put him in the driver's seat en route to landing what was then the highest AAV in the NHL's salary-cap era.
The Marner situation is different, however. It was always going to be.
I firmly believe that if Marner was willing to sign a Nylander-like extension, it would have been done well before now. And that's including the fact Nylander's $11.5 million cap hit, bumped up percentage-wise for a $92.5 million cap, would mean something in the neighborhood of a $12.1 million contract over eight years.
There are three complicating factors for the Leafs trying to get Marner signed right now, in-season:
1. We don't know where the cap is going. With the forecasted range for next season between a 5 percent and a 10.2 percent bump, that leaves room for interpretation for the big-name UFAs and their agents as to where their new deals should go. Nylander's $11.5 million AAV, for example, could be equivalent to as much as $12.67 million at the high end of the cap projection for 2025-26. Plus the cap could jump even more aggressively the season after that. And what makes this even tougher is we may not have clarity on next year's cap number until deep into June.
2. The playoffs. I realize this is breaking news, but the Leafs have underperformed in the postseason throughout the Matthews/Marner/Nylander era. Winning one round, when you put it up against what the other players in this salary bracket have accomplished, isn't good enough. That's obviously not all on Marner, but the other two stars are already signed with full no-movement clauses. And when you're talking about $13 million or $14 million, the way Kypreos is, this core's struggles in the playoffs are highly relevant.
3. The history and where the Leafs are at. Marner's last negotiation was messy. We don't need to relitigate all of that. But it's going to be part of the process, trying to find a compromise when that's historically been so difficult between these two sides, even if the GM has changed. The reality is the Leafs simply can't afford another overpay here, especially to lock in a core that hasn't gotten over the hump in the postseason. They're going to be tight against the cap, even if it goes way up, and especially if they get an extension done with Tavares.
What does all of that add up to? Well, this isn't getting done right now. I'd be surprised to see it done before the playoffs. That's not on the Leafs and also not necessarily a bad thing.
This will likely have to play out until deep into the spring. Let this team go into the playoffs with a new coach and a new style of play and see how the stars perform. Let Marner show he can carry this club when the games matter most, against the top teams in the Eastern Conference, and, sure, build some leverage.
And, perhaps, let this go right to the doorstep of free agency, calling the bluff that the hometown kid would be willing to leave for what likely isn't going to amount to more money.
The two things the Leafs have in their favor are that (a) Marner wants to stay in Toronto and (b) they're the only team that can give him eight years. For an outside team to match the Leafs on an eight-year deal at roughly $12.1 million, Chicago or Utah or whoever would have to offer more than $13.8 million over seven years, just shy of what Draisaitl broke the bank for.
That offer may exist on July 1 from a struggling team that has acres of cap space and is desperate to add a star. But how much higher could it possibly be, even if Marner has a strong season and playoffs? And is he really going to take it, if the total dollar value is roughly the same as the Leafs offer and it means playing in relative obscurity, far from home?
On the flip side, if that's how things play out, would having $12 million or so in extra cap space really be the end of the world for the Leafs, given some of the high-profile free agents that could soon be available?
There's an obvious parallel here, too, with another homegrown star. Eight years ago in free agency, the Tampa Bay Lightning played this game of chicken with Steven Stamkos. He looked at his options (including the Leafs) and ultimately chose to stay, signing a below-market offer at $8.5 million over eight years.
They then won two Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, three and four years later.
That waiting game will be the path the Leafs will have to try to walk here with Marner.
Not because they don't want the player, but because they do.