FOXBORO -- We're really not asking for much from the New England Patriots this holiday season. It'd be foolish to hope for an upset win when they visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, or really, a win in any of their three remaining games this season.
But is it too much to ask that they look like something resembling an NFL team over these next three weeks? One that doesn't line up offsides or commit a foolish hold that negates a big offensive gain. One that doesn't miss tackles that allows a running back to gash them for 40-plus yards. One whose coaching staff and players don't point fingers after a game.
That's not an outrageous request this holiday season. But Jerod Mayo and his Patriots have shown no signs of improvement over their four-game losing streak, and outside of Drake Maye and Christian Gonzalez, everyone appears to be getting worse.
At least Mayo has a nice warm seat to sit on now that the weather is getting frigid in New England. But it doesn't make anyone else feel any better about the dark, cold days ahead.
After the Patriots made the Arizona Cardinals look like a contender last weekend in an embarrassing showing in the desert, they now get to visit a Bills team that is the best squad in the AFC with the best player in the game in quarterback Josh Allen. Buffalo won a potential Super Bowl preview in Detroit last Sunday on four touchdowns (two through the air, two on the ground) from Allen.
Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in all but three games this season. The Bills have hit that mark in each of their last eight games to set an NFL record.
New England hasn't put up that many points since Bailey Zappe led the team to a 38-15 win over the Cleveland Browns on Oct. 16, 2022. Yeah, it could get real ugly real quick in Orchard Park on Sunday.
But the Patriots miraculously split the series with Buffalo last season, thanks to a 29-25 upset win in Foxboro. And New England's Week 17 loss in Buffalo wasn't a massive blowout, with the Pats falling 27-21.
We're not counting on a surprise road win on Sunday, but tis the season for miracles. Here's what we'll be watching for when the Pats and the Bills square off in Week 16.
Keeping up with Allen won't be easy for Maye, but he should be able to put up some solid numbers against a Bills defense that has allowed some serious yards (an average of 489) and points (86 in total) over the last two weeks to the Rams and the Lions. The Patriots are in no way, shape, or form like the Rams or the Lions, but Maye is riding a hot streak at the moment. He's completed over 80 percent of his passes in each of the last two games.
Maye will need to be hot on Sunday, since temps will be in the teens in Buffalo. It will be the coldest game that Maye has played in during his career -- both in the pros and college.
His coldest game in the NFL came a few weeks ago when it was 37 degrees in Foxboro for New England's Week 13 loss to the Colts. Maye connected on 24 of his 30 attempts for 238 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in that defeat, as the cold didn't seem to bother him too much.
In college, the coldest game he played in was his last, a 39-20 loss at NC State on Nov. 25, 2023. It was 39 degrees that Saturday night, and Maye completed 22 of 38 passes for 254 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He also ran for 110 yards and a touchdown on nine carries.
Sunday is going to be much, much colder than either of those games, so we'll see how the 22-year-old handles those sub-freezing temps. It will be his first of many such contests in a Patriots uniform.
It's not just playing in the cold that will be a great experience for Maye. He'll get his first taste of the rabid Buffalo crowd in one of the hardest places to play in the NFL. The Bills are 20-3 at Highmark Stadium over the last three seasons.
The Patriots probably aren't looking forward to facing Allen twice over the final three weeks. Even the best defenses have had a tough time keeping him from looking like a video game this season, so imagine what he's going to do to a New England defense that has been allergic to tackling and likes to leave massive swaths of field wide open.
Be prepared: Josh Allen is going to rip the Patriots to shreds. He has 36 total scores (25 passing, 11 rushing) on the season, and 10 touchdowns in the last two weeks alone. He has nearly 3,400 passing yards for the season, and is averaging a career-best 8.0 yards per pass attempt.
Allen has got almost 500 rushing yards too, and is never much fun to try to bring down in open space. Imagine trying to bring down the 6-foot-5, 237-pound wrecking ball with the temps below freezing.
Most impressive though is how much Allen has cut down on his turnovers. He had a career-high 18 picks last season, but has just five in 2024. Mayo praised Allen this week for taking more "profit" plays this season, opting to settle for checkdowns rather than force something that isn't there downfield.
The Patriots defense is going to have to be near perfect to have any chance at slowing down Allen on Sunday. Unfortunately, only one player on that side of the ball has been anywhere near perfection this season.
That player is, of course, cornerback Christian Gonzalez. While the defense as a whole deserves a huge lump of coal for its "effort" in 2024, Gonzalez has been playing at an All Pro level.
So which Bills receiver will he lock down this weekend? Allen has done an incredible job spreading things out this season, so anyone could be Buffalo's No. 1 on Sunday.
Khalil Shakir is Buffalo's leading receiver with 744 yards and has been incredible efficient with 71 receptions on his 88 targets. Amari Cooper had a six-catch, 95-yard showing against the Rams two weeks ago, but didn't see a pass go his way last week in Detroit while he dealt with a wrist injury. Rookie Keion Coleman will need some attention too, as he's averaging 20.9 yards on his 23 receptions this season.
Gonzalez will likely find himself on either Shakur or Cooper, depending on the health of the latter. But chances are Allen won't be throwing Gonzalez's way too often anyways, and will challenge the New England defense elsewhere.
Forget a win, as you have a better chance at seeing Santa next Tuesday night. But we need to see the Patriots put up a fight this weekend.
They came out of their bye week last Sunday with a complete dud. They continued to commit pre-snap penalties on offense and they missed several tackles on defense. The Patriots were pretty lifeless for most of the game until a late surge made the final score looks somewhat respectable. But the game was never as close as the 30-17 score would indicate.
The Patriots cannot have a no-show against the Bills on Sunday. This is a divisional game against a team trying to win a Super Bowl. The Patriots aren't going anywhere, but they need to play a good, respectable game and show us something competitive.
And when it's all over, Jerod Mayo needs to have a good post-game press conference. Take accountability and leave it at that. Don't throw assistants or players under the bus. Don't say too much about something that will then require the head coach to walk it back on Monday.
Mayo's future could depend on these final three games. If the Patriots have three more no-shows and Mayo continues to make mistakes on the sideline and at the podium, and Robert Kraft will have to give some serious thought toward making Mayo a one-and-done coach.